Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack - Vegas Insider
Matchup: Indiana at Michigan
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Michigan (-20 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
MICHIGAN over Indiana - Indy is 2-13 SU in B10 openers but did win in ‘06 and ‘07. Indy is 7-20 ATS away vs B10 opps incl 0-3 SU/ATS vs Mich. Mich is on their 4th str HG but has a big revenge match vs rival Mich St on deck. Mich is 30-1 in the series winning the L/5 by 30 ppg but Rod is 2-5 as a HF (2-0 TY). UM awoke from just a 24-17 halftime lead to cruise to a 45-17 win over EM in which the Wolves rushed for their most yds (392) S/’03 and finished with a 448-285 yd edge. QB Forcier struggled (7-13, 68 yds) after LW’s heroics. The Hoosiers are 3-0 after a 38-21 win at Akron in which the Zips susp’d their starting QB on Friday and his replacement threw 4 int. QB Chappell avg 225 (68%) with a 3-3 ratio. UM has huge edges all around (#19-91 off, #27-60 D and #26-75 ST) and Rod’s team opens up B10 play like the good old days.
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Matchup: Fresno St at Cincinnati
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Fresno St (+17 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
Fresno St Over CINCINNATI - 1st meeting. Cincy has won 15 in a row SU vs non-BCS teams. LY Fresno traveled to BE country and was outplayed in the 1H by Rutgers but rolled to a 24-7 win. They are 7-7 SU vs BCS teams on the road with 4 losses by a comb 9 pts. Cin returns home after a big win over Ore St, 28-18 (-1). QB Pike is avg 308 ypg (71%) with an 8-2 ratio. Kelly is 7-3 ATS at home and Hill is 2-14 off a SU loss and has lost 10 straight vs ranked teams (skid started USC ‘05). FSU is off a disappointing home loss to Boise 51-34. FSU is avg 270 ypg rush led by Mathews who is avg 149 ypg (9.1!). They now face UC that is all’g 69.3 rush ypg and held LY’s Pac 10 Off POY (OSU Rodgers) to 73 yds. The def edge goes to Cincy (#56-86), who is playing solid despite ret’g 1 str from LY. There will be a big crowd on hand to watch #14 Cincy take advantage of FSU who may not have much left in the tank on a long trip after a tough loss.
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Matchup: North Carolina at GA Tech
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: GA Tech (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
GEORGIA TECH Over N Carolina - GT is 9-2 SU but LY #19 NC defeated #22 GT 28-7 as RB Houston ran for a pair of 4Q TD’s. GT did rush for 326 and had a 423-314 yd edge but was done in by -3 in TO’s. In ‘07, GT needed a FG w/:15 left at home 27-25 (-9’). Since taking a 24-0 lead vs Clemson TY, GT has been outscored 60-23. GT is 3-0 off a loss and 3-1 as a HF under Johnson. QB Nesbitt is avg 119 ypg (38%) with a 2-2 ratio and has rushed for 213 yds (4.6). RB Dwyer was inj’d in the 1H LW vs UM and did not return (168 rush yds, 5.6). NC is off to its first 3-0 start since winning 8 straight in ‘97. QB Yates is avg 191 ypg (67%) with a 5-3 ratio. True frosh Highsmith has 10 rec (17.2). NC has a very athletic D-line but GT needs to bounce back after being held to just 228 ttl yds on national TV last Thurs in their 33-17 loss to UM.
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Matchup: Marshall at Memphis
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Marshall (+3.5 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
Marshall Over MEMPHIS - The HT has won all 4 SU (3-1 ATS) in the series. LY Marshall held the Tigers to a regular ssn-low 94 yds rushing and won 17-16 (-4) despite being outFD’d. The L/2 have been decided by 1 and 3. Marshall HC Snyder is just 6-16 as an AD, but Memphis HC West is 7-13 as a HF. The Herd is a off a 17-10 home win over BG as a 4H LPS Winner. Marshall was outgained 393-346, but held the Falcons to just 10 rush yds (0.5!). RB Marshall ran for 186 (8.9), incl an 80 yd TD run. Memphis got their 1st win as they beat FCS foe UT-Martin 41-14. Soph QB Tyler Bass got his 1st career start and was 21-27 for 293 with a 4-1 ratio. Leading rusher Steele (119, 5.0) missed LW and is expected to miss at least 1 more week. These teams always seem to play close games and we like a Marshall team with fewer question marks to come away with a key CUSA road win.
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Matchup: San Diego State at Air Force
Time: 2:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: San Diego State (+17 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
San Diego St (+) Over AIR FORCE - Air Force has been impressive ranking #1 NCAA (by 55 ypg) rushing for 344 ypg (5.0) but they now face SDSt’s DC Long who was a master at slowing the option while HC at NM. At NM, his units held AF to 70 ypg under their rushing avg. This season the Aztecs have held opponents to 135 ypg (3.8). In their last meeting, SD was without QB Lindley and led 10-7 at HT but then struggled in the 2H. This season Lindley has thrown for 242 ypg (54%) with a 5-1 ratio despite being banged up LW. AF is 5-0 as a conf HF and QB Jefferson inj his ankle LW and did not finish the game. Jefferson made his first start vs SDSt LY as AF rushed for 401 (5.2). SDSt is in their 3rd road game in 4 wks, but favor the well-coached squad in this series in which the dog has gone 10-6 ATS with 5 upsets in 8 yrs.
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Matchup: UNLV at Wyoming
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: UNLV (-3 -110)
Line Source: LEROYS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
Unlv Over WYOMING - UNLV is 7 seconds away from a 3-0 start and is now in the rare role of being a conf AF (0-1 ATS L5Y). Wyoming was off to a 2-0 ATS start but covered by a combined 1.5 pts. LW they ran into an angry Colorado squad and lost 24-0 and now have been outgained by a comb 870-503 the L/2 gms. LV QB Clayton threw for 340 yds and 3 TD in their comeback win against Hawaii and should have another solid performance against a WY D that has allowed 283 pass yds per game (61%). WY has used 2 QB’s TY and they have completed only 44% of their passes against two FBS tms. We don’t foresee much improvement as WY OL has all’d 11 sks which has forced the QB’s to hurry their passes. The Rebels have covered 3 straight in this series, are 5-1 ATS in Laramie, have the superior off (#74-117) and have a huge ST’s edge (#59-119).
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Matchup: Akron at C.Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: C.Michigan (-15.5 -110)
Line Source: M Resort
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
C MICHIGAN Over Akron - CM is 6-1 SU and despite not being fav by more than 3’ in that span are 4-3 ATS with 3 (-3’) and 1 (-2’) pt wins. Akron is 3-9 SU on the MAC road w/the avg win by 4 ppg and avg loss by 14 ppg. CM is 8-2 as a HF and last time here in ‘06 was actually a dog (+1) and won 24-21. In their ‘07 non-cover CM had a 639-323 yd edge but was SOD 3 times and blew 12 pt leads twice. That game also did not matter in the MAC standings for CM but this year’s does. Akron is off a letdown as they were favored over a BCS team in their 2nd game at their new on-campus stadium but Sr QB Jacquemain was susp indef LW and his backup Soph QB Rodgers threw 4 int in his first start. CM did not show any hangover from their upset of Mich St as they dominated FCS Alcorn St with a 460-236 yd edge. CM is led by QB LeFevour who is avg 176 (69%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 3 rush TD. CM has the def edge (#73-106) and with Jacquemain out have a bigger off edge than the numbers show (#64-73) and catch the Zips at the right time.
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Matchup: TCU at Clemson
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Clemson (-1.5 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
CLEMSON over Tcu - Last week we won our Sept 5* GOM with Clemson over BC. This is a dangerous spot for Clemson as they are in an ACC sandwich while the Frogs are in between Texas St and SMU and will be sky high for any matchup vs a BCS school. TCU just traveled to the East Coast and dispatched UVA 30-14 and may be the most talented non-BCS team (just like LY). Both teams have excellent D’s (TCU #7 vs CU #9). CU QB Parker is avg 174 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Spiller, who sat out the 4Q LW with a recurring toe inj and was only at 85% to start the game, is avg 210 all-purp ypg. TCU QB Dalton is avg 207 ypg (74%) with a 3-2 ratio. RB Turner has rushed for 324 yds (9.0!). TCU’s ranking assures Clemson’s focus here.
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Matchup: Colorado State at BYU
Time: 6:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: BYU (-16 -110)
Line Source: STATIONS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
BYU over Colorado St - BYU’s BCS and National Title hopes were dashed LW getting routed at home 54-28 to FSU. The loss snapped their 18 game home winning streak. Despite the lopsided score BYU was only outgained 512-473 but were -5 in TO’s. Meanwhile, CSU is off to their best start (3-0) since 1994. LW they upset (+3’) Nevada 35-20 thanks in large part to a +5 TO margin. Despite the tm success, CSU QB Stucker has struggled in his 1st ssn avg 192 ypg (50%) with a 4-3 ratio. Don’t expect his performance to improve going up against a fired up BYU D who was embarrassed against the Noles. Meanwhile, BYU QB Hall is having a solid season avg 315 ypg (69%) but only has a 6-6 ratio. BYU’s veteran team should be focused to avenge LW’s loss as they start their run at a 3rd MWC Title in 4 years.
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Matchup: Army at Iowa State
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Army (+10.5 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
Army (+) Over IOWA ST - #22 ISU beat Army 28-21(-17) on the road in ‘05, but trailed 14-7 at HT and was outgained 365-229. Army is 1-4 SU vs the B12 but has only been outscored by 5 ppg. Army is 5-1 as an AD (won at EM Wk 1). ISU is 1-4 as a HF and in the only cover was outgained (outFD’d 20-14, +3 TO). ISU snapped a 17 gm road losing streak LW vs Kent St, although KSU was depleted w/inj’s (no starting QB and RB). QB Arnaud bounced back LW from a 4 int day and is avg 150 ypg (55%) with a 3-4 ratio. Army (could be 3-0, up 10-0 vs Duke) beat Ball St LW despite being outgained (-110 yds) for the 1st time TY (+3 TO). True Fr QB Steelman has 228 ttl yds (1st true QB to start at Army in modern era). RB Mealy has 236 yds (10.7). Both tms come in at 2-1 and with the schedules getting tougher for each a win for either would be huge here.
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Member Plays
Matchup: Buffalo at Temple
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Temple (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: STATIONS
Posted on: September 24, 2009 @ 10:34:10 AM EDT
TEMPLE Over Buffalo - UB beat TU on a 35 yd Hail Mary LY, the most miraculous play in UB history. UB is 12-1 all-time vs Temple (only loss in ‘70), incl 3-0 in MAC meetings. The Bulls are on their 3rd road game in 4W but did win here 42-7 in ‘07 with a 273 yd advantage. Gill is 15-6 as an AD (1-1 TY). UB lost their all-time leading rusher Starks for the year just prior to the season and RB Thermilus leads the team with just 164 ypg (3.2). QB Maynard is avg 248 (65%) with a 6-2 ratio thanks to his top WR Roosevelt’s 20 rec (16.2). TU QB Charlton is avg 261 (567%) with a 2-3 ratio incl 205 vs a tough Penn St def. While the Owls are off a short trip to Happy Valley, Buff returns from a long road trip to UCF where they let a 17-7 halftime lead escape them. While the Bulls have a slight edge on off (#106-110) the Owls have a bigger def edge (#55-96) and should be able to corral the Bulls.
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